As we transition from human labor to digital and robotic labor, the cost of production will drop and we will all potentially benefit from lower prices.
However, unless we make some public policy changes, there is a gap of time on the horizon where obsolete humans cannot find work and existing economic safety nets are not sufficient to meet their needs.
Some have suggested that AI will create many new jobs to replace the jobs that are automated. But this is an ill conceived pipe dream. There is no evidence to suggest that AI cannot also do any new jobs that are created. In fact, all the evidence points to AI doing both the old and new jobs. While there may be a period of time that new jobs must be performed by humans, this is only temporary. Whatever future you imagine, I urge you to heed this warning seriously. There will be NO NEW JOBS THAT AI CANNOT EVENTUALLY PERFORM.
Many have proposed that a universal basic income be established to act as a safety net for those displaced workers who cannot find gainful employment. But even if UBI becomes a reality, there is no UBI safety net today and there will be no UBI tomorrow. Thus, the UBI gap.
What happens then?
What happens then is what we must plan for today. We cannot wait for the crisis appear. While some people believe the transition from a human to digital human workforce may be slow and gradual, we must not ignore that the conditions are ripe for the transition to take place much faster than anyone anticipates. There is very real risk that governments and societies are caught woefully unprepared. If that happens, we could face civil unrest, political upheaval and general instability that will not be good for anyone, rich or poor. Think pitchforks and manor houses burning. Think homelessnes, hunger and a mental health crisis. These are risks that we need not take. But only if we act now.
Short Term Plan as we wait for the Long Term Solution
The long term solution is that AI brings costs down low enough that it ushers in the Age of Abundance. In the short term, every country’s government needs to establish a think tank and get their playbook in order. We need a short term plan for the transition where prices are not yet low enough to feed and house us all for near-free, and where there are not enough jobs to go around.
Is there anyone in government who can see what’s coming? If so, this is your time to pick up the prophetic mantle of the leader who will prepare society by planning for a future that is certain, but momentarily invisible.